{"id":144248,"date":"2025-03-04T14:48:57","date_gmt":"2025-03-04T14:48:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.politics.co.uk\/?p=144248"},"modified":"2025-03-05T09:33:33","modified_gmt":"2025-03-05T09:33:33","slug":"ukraine-developments-leave-nigel-farage-and-reform-exposed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.politics.co.uk\/politicslunch\/2025\/03\/04\/ukraine-developments-leave-nigel-farage-and-reform-exposed\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine developments leave Nigel Farage and Reform exposed"},"content":{"rendered":"

If there was ever a story that stands taller than Westminster\u2019s towering walls<\/a>, this would be it: Donald Trump<\/a> has ordered the US administration to suspend all military aid to Ukraine<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In the most troubling development since Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy\u2019s White House meeting on *checks notes<\/a>* Friday, it was announced overnight that the US will forsake Ukraine as it escalates attempts to impose an unconditional ceasefire.<\/p>\n

\u201cPresident [Trump] has been clear that he is focused on peace\u201d, the relevant White House statement<\/a> reads. \u201cWe need our partners to be committed to that goal as well. We are pausing and reviewing our aid to ensure that it is contributing to a solution.\u201d<\/p>\n

The missive came alongside a fresh attack on Zelenskyy by Trump. The Ukrainian president \u201cwon\u2019t be around very long\u201d if he does not commit to a ceasefire soon, his US counterpart declared.<\/p>\n

The development is so extraordinary that Graham Stuart<\/a>, a serving Tory MP and former Foreign Office minister, has said it is time to consider the \u201cpossibility<\/a>\u201d that the US president is a Kremlin asset. The comment serves as a marked sign of the times.<\/p>\n

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The Westminster frame of partisan competition, it is often remarked, can distort just as much as it reveals. The reality of our new diplomatic disorder, in several crucial senses, is a case in point. But the prevalent pattern that sees the latest Trump pronouncement interpreted and responded to by interested political actors \u2014 one by one \u2014 is proving immensely instructive. Statement by statement, press release by press release, a stark picture is being formed of the fault lines that will define this parliament.<\/p>\n

The UK government\u2019s delicate balancing act, as the mediator between Trump\u2019s America and Europe, is facing daily stress tests. The figurative \u201cbridge\u201d, only weeks after it was unveiled by Downing Street briefers, is quaking as the tectonic plates of geopolitics shift. Keir Starmer<\/a> has little trouble sauntering to the US side, as last week\u2019s visit proved \u2014 but he has so far proved unable to coax the Trump administration in the European direction. Starmer\u2019s strategic construction looks less sturdy every news cycle.<\/p>\n

The Liberal Democrats, as I have commented before<\/a>, are confidently exploring the political space it has spent the Trump 2.0 era cleaving: Sir Ed Davey is the UK\u2019s anti-Trumper-in-chief. The Conservative Party<\/a> is coming to terms with its role somewhat less self-assuredly. Still, the Tories have in recent days issued statements generally condemning Trump\u2019s Ukraine initiative.<\/p>\n

But by far the most interesting case is that of Reform UK.<\/p>\n

The party has shown such strategic confusion in recent weeks that commentators are busily rethinking the myths that drive it: namely, that Nigel Farage \u2014 politically invulnerable and electorally insurgent \u2014 is on an inexorable march to Downing Street.<\/p>\n

In the House of Commons yesterday, Farage could hardly have looked more uncomfortable as he responded to the prime minister\u2019s statement on his diplomatic efforts. His ostensible question concerned US security guarantees, and specifically whether a Trump-Ukraine raw materials deal can provide requisite protection.<\/p>\n

Had Farage been paying attention to the prime minister\u2019s commentary in recent days, he might have predicted his answer. \u201cThe minerals deal is not enough on its own<\/a>\u201d, Starmer replied.<\/p>\n

But media attention<\/a> focused on his follow-up: \u201cBut can I just remind him? Russia is the aggressor and Zelenskyy is a war leader whose country has been invaded. We should all be supporting him and not fawning over [Vladimir] Putin.\u201d<\/p>\n

Farage nodded in agreement as the prime minister launched into his answer. But his populist facade of self-importance had been shattered. Starmer, the Labour roar suggested, had struck the right tone.<\/p>\n

That morning, Farage suggested Volodymyr Zelenskyy was \u201crude\u201d and \u201cvery unwise\u201d<\/a> in his now-infamous White House meeting with Trump. In an X post over the weekend, published several hours after other political leaders had opined, the Reform chief labelled the spat \u201cregrettable\u201d and warned that the fallout will leave Putin \u201cfeeling like the winner\u201d.<\/p>\n

But Farage\u2019s remarks in an LBC phone-in Monday were considerably more colourful. Asked if he would treat a guest as Trump did, Farage responded: \u201cI wouldn\u2019t expect a guest to be rude to me in my own house, absolutely not. I would expect a guest to treat me with respect.\u201d<\/p>\n

He also echoed MAGA talking points about Zelenskyy\u2019s military-style attire. \u201cDo you know what?<\/a>\u201d, he began. \u201cIf I turned up in the White House, I\u2019d make sure I was wearing a suit and my shoes were cleaned.\u201d<\/p>\n

***This content first appeared in Politics.co.uk\u2019s Politics@Lunch newsletter, <\/i>sign-up for free<\/i><\/a>\u00a0and never miss our daily briefing.***<\/i><\/p>\n

Those comments were the backdrop to a remarkable intervention from the Conservative Party yesterday morning \u2014 remarkable because the Tories under Kemi Badenoch<\/a> have, thus far, proven conspicuously quiet with regard to Farage\u2019s antics. In a statement issued via a CCHQ press release, shadow foreign secretary Priti Patel compared Farage\u2019s stance on Russia to that of former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.<\/p>\n

\u201cFor Nigel Farage<\/a> to sit there pointing the finger at Zelenskyy is both morally wrong and diplomatically counterproductive\u201d, Patel declared. \u201cBut sadly, it is not surprising. Like Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of Reform UK seems to have history equivocating over Russia\u2019s illegal war in Ukraine.\u201d<\/p>\n

There was, of course, the usual Lib Dem rebuke. Ed Davey praised Zelenskyy\u2019s \u201ccourage\u201d \u2014 comparing it to \u201cFarage\u2019s cowardly approach of licking Trump\u2019s boots.\u201d<\/p>\n

But the Patel statement was undoubtedly more significant. The intervention reflects an emergent new flank on the right, as the Conservatives seek to stigmatise Farage\u2019s stance on the Ukraine conflict. It is a canny strategy, if a belated<\/em> one.<\/p>\n

After all, it’s reasonably well-acknowledged that Farage\u2019s stance on the Ukraine conflict is one of the reasons Reform UK<\/a> remains politically vulnerable. Farage\u2019s insurgency was stalled during the 2024 general election <\/a>campaign after he suggested the West \u201cprovoked\u201d Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine by expanding the European Union and NATO military alliance eastwards. The discourse, at best, distracted from Reform\u2019s central election pitch and, at worst, repelled potential voters.<\/p>\n

The Conservative Party<\/a>\u00a0therefore, is right to exploit Faragism\u2019s foremost weakness. The question is why it took them so long.<\/p>\n

More broadly, there is an interesting conversation to be had around why Farage has not pivoted his party to a clearer pro-Ukraine stance \u2014 given the political damage his ambiguity inflicted on Reform last election. Assuming Farage is thinking rationally, there are a few theories.<\/p>\n

First, it is possible that Farage privileges his friendship with Trump above the immediate electoral interests of his party. His connection to the MAGA movement affords him significant cultural clout in the US, particularly as a speaker at various pro-Trump conventions. (A cynic would highlight the lucrative nature of this relationship).<\/p>\n

In a related political sense, Farage may well fear a backlash (from those who are ardently pro-Trump) if he creates too much distance between Reform and the US president. Perhaps it is the power of Elon Musk, as the ringleader of the ruthless Online Right, that Farage dreads. Musk has previously suggested that Rupert Lowe, the Reform MP for Great Yarmouth, is the future of the party \u2014 and Lowe\u2019s energetic engagement with the Online Right since would suggest the praise went straight to his head.<\/p>\n

If Farage does have a rival in Reform, it is Lowe. Having recently “democratised” his party by allowing Reform members the power to remove their leader, Farage does have to consider intra-party rivalries. Once again, he is not invincible.<\/p>\n

There is also, interestingly, something of a split in Reform over Ukraine. The pressure provided by Lowe is one factor; another is Farage\u2019s friendship with Trump. But it should also be stated that Richard Tice, Reform UK deputy leader, has been a longtime advocate of Ukraine\u2019s cause. Before Farage seized Reform\u2019s reins during the general election, then-leader Tice drove to Ukraine to deliver supplies to the frontline. At the time (January 2024), Tice received some serious stick from Online Right types for the scheme.<\/p>\n

And in the House of Commons last week, Tice broke Reform\u2019s parliamentary silence on Ukraine with a speech condemning the \u201cmonstrous tyranny of that most evil, evil villain<\/a>, Putin.\u201d<\/p>\n

Right-of-Conservative parties, however small, have tended to schism into factional conflict sooner or later. Perhaps we are witnessing the beginnings of this process in Reform\u2019s five-MP caucus.<\/p>\n

But whatever the explanation for Farage\u2019s stance, Reform is exposed in a way we have not seen since the creation of the Brexit Party, its predecessor outfit, in 2018. Starmer \u2014 and potentially Badenoch \u2014 stand to make progress at its expense.<\/p>\n

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