{"id":142021,"date":"2024-06-12T14:34:57","date_gmt":"2024-06-12T13:34:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.politics.co.uk\/?p=142021"},"modified":"2024-06-20T08:00:24","modified_gmt":"2024-06-20T07:00:24","slug":"beware-a-starmer-super-majority-why-the-conservatives-are-warning-of-a-labour-landslide","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.politics.co.uk\/politicslunch\/2024\/06\/12\/beware-a-starmer-super-majority-why-the-conservatives-are-warning-of-a-labour-landslide\/","title":{"rendered":"Beware a Starmer \u2018super majority\u2019: why the Conservatives are warning of a Labour landslide"},"content":{"rendered":"

The below content first appeared in Politics.co.uk\u2019s Politics@Lunch newsletter, sign-up for free <\/i>here<\/i><\/a>\u00a0and never miss this essential election briefing.<\/i><\/p>\n

There\u2019s been a significant shift in the Conservative Party\u2019s election messaging in recent days: a tactical recalibration informed not<\/em> by the manifesto launch<\/a> or the political possibilities opened up by Rishi Sunak\u2019s new raft of measures \u2014 but by the apparent inevitability of the election outcome.<\/p>\n

Defence secretary Grant Shapps, touring the media studios this morning as one of the Conservatives\u2019 most able performers, urged voters not to hand Keir Starmer a \u201csuper majority<\/a>\u201d. He warned that the election could endow the Labour leader, for whom enthusiasm has yet to meaningfully form, with \u201cunchecked\u201d power in government.<\/p>\n

Shapps\u2019 pitch was that voters should ensure a \u201cproper system of accountability<\/a>\u201d by voting for a strong opposition, i.e. the Conservatives.<\/p>\n

Speaking to Times Radio<\/em>, Shapps had been asked to comment on a live Tory online ad campaign which appears to warn voters that Rishi Sunak\u2019s party could finish third in the election. The ads in question urge voters not to \u201chand Keir Starmer a blank cheque\u201d by leaving \u201cnobody holding [him] to account on your behalf\u201d; on top of this, each ad (and there are four variations) displays a graphic with a hypothetical House of Commons seat projection.<\/p>\n

This projection \u2014 which, remember, CCHQ is paying handsomely to promote \u2014 shows Labour on 490 seats with 43 per cent of the vote; the Liberal Democrats on 61 seats with 10 per cent of the vote; and the Conservatives in third place<\/em> on 57 seats and 19 per cent of the vote. Reform<\/a> is said to be on 18 per cent, but with zero seats.<\/p>\n

Therein you note the message, dutifully repeated by Shapps this morning: that a vote for Reform on the 4th July could hand Starmer unprecedented political power.<\/p>\n

Throughout this campaign, despite its clear \u201ccore vote\u201d focus, the Conservative Party has proved entirely unable to resist the rise of Nigel Farage<\/a>. Just yesterday in fact, a new YouGov poll placed Reform on 18 per cent of the vote \u2014 one point behind Rishi Sunak\u2019s party. And so the strategy evolves: the plan now is to level with Reform\u2019s voters and highlight the potential unintended consequences of their actions.<\/p>\n

To a large extent, this approach chimes with Sunak\u2019s remarks at the Conservative manifesto launch yesterday. \u201cDo not forget that Keir Starmer is asking you to hand him a blank cheque\u201d, he urged voters from his Silverstone soapbox<\/a>. But with the Conservatives\u2019 recent adverts, and Shapps\u2019 pitch this morning in particular, we have arrived at an inflection point this election: CCHQ is now openly admitting that the Conservative Party is on track to lose, and lose badly.<\/p>\n

It amounts to an arguably overdue, very public reckoning with reality \u2014 one likely expedited by the PM\u2019s D-Day debacle<\/a>. (Tellingly perhaps, this latest Conservative ad campaign was launched on Monday \u2014 mere days after Sunak issued an apology for leaving D-Day commemorations in Normandy).<\/p>\n

The strategy is no less than an election gambit of last resort \u2014 but resorted to just halfway through the campaign. It is evidence of the Conservative Party not only coming to terms with its manifold woes \u2014 but learning to think pragmatically about them and adjusting its message accordingly. It\u2019s not mere loss minimisation (the Tory strategy so far) \u2014 but extinction minimisation<\/a>.<\/p>\n

That said, it\u2019s also not an entirely novel approach; the plan echoes the tactics pursued by a number of Labour MPs in the 2017 general election, as they pleaded with voters to deprive then-PM Theresa May of a substantial majority.<\/p>\n

As such, it\u2019s possible that this messaging could prevent the Conservatives from being routed in a few safe seats \u2014 that\u2019s the aim, certainly. But what\u2019s most striking about the new strategy is how it accords with the prevailing consensus at the heart of this election \u2014 one already forged by the Tories\u2019 rival parties, in spite of the Tories.<\/p>\n

The Liberal Democrats, the Greens, Reform and all manner of independents\/smaller parties, argue that an inevitable Labour landslide means that the electorate can vote in line with their conscience. The Conservatives, at pains, have made the case for the opposing view: that the race is not yet run. In U-turning on this pitch so brazenly, the Conservative Party is now playing into its foes\u2019 pitch; it\u2019s a logical strategy, therefore \u2014 but not one without risks.<\/p>\n

In short, Rishi Sunak wants to highlight the unintended consequences of Reform voters\u2019 actions. But the Conservative Party\u2019s defeat, for the average Nigel Farage fan<\/a>, is intended indeed.<\/p>\n

If this is the PM\u2019s best hope of avoiding an unprecedented routing<\/a>, therefore \u2014 and it may well be \u2014 an unprecedented routing has never looked more likely.<\/p>\n

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