{"id":131355,"date":"2023-04-25T11:24:05","date_gmt":"2023-04-25T10:24:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicscouk.wpengine.com\/?p=131355"},"modified":"2023-05-09T10:17:20","modified_gmt":"2023-05-09T09:17:20","slug":"after-six-months-and-a-revival-narrative-established-have-we-reached-peak-sunak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.politics.co.uk\/5-minute-read\/2023\/04\/25\/after-six-months-and-a-revival-narrative-established-have-we-reached-peak-sunak\/","title":{"rendered":"After six months and a revival narrative established, have we reached \u2018peak Sunak\u2019?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Six months ago, Rishi Sunak entered No 10 Downing Street as prime minister for the first time. Preceded by six weeks of exile following his bruising campaign defeat in the summer to Liz Truss, it is difficult to overstate how significant a political comeback this was. But as pensions funds teetered and Britain\u2019s financier class grumbled, the core tenets of his fiscal philosophy had been vindicated.<\/p>\n

Careful not to be seen as gloating, Sunak\u2019s face was graven with seriousness \u2014 even the wave was sullen. There was a political message too: if the previous occupant of No 10 had been over-caffeinated, her administration bloated on ideology, the new regime would be as stolid as it was bloodlessly technocratic. \u201cCheer up Rishi!\u201d, one journalist shouted as the famous black door of No 10 shut.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Today, you rarely see Sunak without a smile on his face.<\/p>\n

Indeed, the prime minister\u2019s toothy grin provides an aesthetic quality to Westminster\u2019s newest narrative: that the PM \u2014 having delivered on the Windsor Framework<\/a>, AUKUS developments, a gaffe-free Budget, CPTPP and trade union pay deals \u2014 is riding high on achievement. In this view, not only has Sunak thwarted the endless sense of scandal and ceased the Conservative party\u2019s constant reboots \u2014 some of his MPs are starting to dream of election victory next year.<\/p>\n

Of course, when it comes to success, it helps to mark your own homework. At the start of the year, the prime minister unveiled five promises he wanted to be judged by come the next election: halving inflation, cutting NHS waiting lists, growing the economy, bringing down the national debt and stopping the small boats carrying asylum seekers across the English Channel. \u201cNo tricks, no ambiguity \u2014 we\u2019re either delivering for you or we\u2019re not\u201d, the PM said in January.<\/p>\n

The prime minister\u2019s approach has therefore been obvious: take problems a few at a time (guided naturally by what is politically propitious), set priorities you think you can hit, tackle them methodically and exalt your success.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Six months in and, tellingly, the \u201cfive priorities\u201d have entirely consumed government. Ask the prime minister about his political philosophy, or what good government means to him, and he will point to his pledges. Every policy announcement, every ministerial statement is framed with the \u201cpriorities\u201d in mind. If Sunak\u2019s team has any say in his setting, the pledges are writ in the blue backgrounds before which the prime minister speaks. It is government by permanent campaigning \u2014 and the prime minister, to his credit, is relentlessly on message.<\/p>\n

Crucially, there is some sense that Labour\u2019s poll lead over the Conservatives is falling as a result. One poll in mid-April, carried out by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, put Labour on 44 per cent, down by one point on the previous week, and the Conservatives on 30 per cent, up by two points. And Politico<\/i>\u2019s \u201cpoll of polls\u201d has the average gap between Labour and the Conservatives at 14 percentage points.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

When Sunak took office on October 25, Labour\u2019s average lead in the same poll tracker was 27 points. It means after months of Labour leads in the 20s or even 30s, Sir Keir Starmer\u2019s advantage seems to be clustering instead in the mid teens.<\/p>\n

However, it is worth qualifying this view of a polling “revival” under Sunak significantly.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

These figures suggest that the Conservative party has recovered to levels seen prior to the mini budget in September. On 25 September, the day of then-chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng\u2019s \u201cgrowth plan\u201d, the Conservatives\u2019 polling lead was 12 points. It suggests, merely, that Rishi Sunak successfully prised out the \u201cpremium\u201d Trussonomics imposed on the Conservative party\u2019s already dire polling performance.<\/p>\n

This highlights a dilemma for the prime minister. For after the blitz of policy on Brexit, trade, immigration, strike deals, where does the prime minister find his next policy heave to continue his polling climb? The answer, unfortunately for the PM, cannot<\/em> be \u201csmall boats<\/a>\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cStopping small boats\u201d was always the most politically sensitive<\/a> and least vague of Sunak\u2019s five pledges. As Paul Goodman pointed out during the PM\u2019s recent interview with ConservativeHome<\/i>, the crossings commitment is hardly vague.\u00a0\u201cYou pledged to \u2018stop the boats<\/i>\u2019\u201d, Goodman told Sunak, \u201cnot reduce the number, not bring the number down \u2014 actually to stopping them\u201d.<\/p>\n

With no choice but to deliver on these terms, the prime minister has been placed in a constant state of \u201cclamping down\u201d on channel crossings. First came a new \u00a360m deal with France to increase surveillance of French beaches, and then came the illegal migration bill which says that anyone who arrives in the UK by \u201csmall boat\u201d with be “detained and swiftly removed\u201d.<\/p>\n

The illegal migration bill returns to the House of Commons for its report stage and third reading tomorrow, when MPs will consider further amendments which have been examined in committee. In a bid to silence rebellion from within his own ranks on the matter, the prime minister has agreed an amendment with the \u201ccommon sense\u201d group of right wing Conservative MPs which would empower the home secretary to ignore \u201cinterim measures\u201d issued under Rule 39 of the rules of European Court of Human Rights.<\/p>\n

Avoiding rebellion through backroom negotiations has been a common theme of Sunak\u2019s premiership, seen before on central housing targets<\/a> and onshore wind<\/a>. It is a strategy that ensures inter-Conservative party disagreements are not aired out in the open \u2014 but the cycle of rebellion turn climbdown takes its toll politically in time. It creates incentives for wannabe backbench activists to make noise for their chosen cause, given a meeting in No 10 and a concession will likely result. On \u201csmall boats\u201d in particular, with the issue so salient in our politics thank to Sunak\u2019s consummate oath-swearing<\/a>, the PM will in all likelihood be pushed into taking more and more extreme positions on matters like the ECHR. Six months in and its clear small boats remain Sunak\u2019s glaring vulnerability.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Outside of Westminster, too, there are some key indicators worth remembering. There are seven million people currently waiting for treatment on NHS waiting lists; inflation is not falling as quickly as had been predicted; and, on economic growth, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that Britain faces the bleakest two years of any major industrial nation. Much has been made of the UK\u2019s entry into the CPTPP, but based on the government’s own estimates, the deal will raise long-term domestic GDP by just 0.08%.<\/p>\n

The recent Raab affair<\/a>, likewise, is a reminder that there can always be further skeletons lurking in the Conservative closet.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In the end, shifting perceptions only take you so far. As the Conservative party prepares for 1000 seat losses in next month\u2019s local elections \u2014 with party chairman Greg Hands and new deputy prime minister Oliver Dowden openly declaring as much \u2014 Sunak\u2019s narrative of revival looks set for a significant collision with electoral reality.<\/p>\n

Tellingly, with the local elections<\/a>\u00a0less than ten days away, Sunak has done little to no campaigning (apart from the odd concerned look directed at a pothole) and the national media was not even invited to the party\u2019s campaign launch in Wolverhampton on March 24. The question for Sunak is how does he maintain the narrative of revival at Westminster amid such an electoral thumping as is expected in May. The Sunak adulation bubble, it seems, may be about to burst.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Peak Sunak?<\/b><\/h5>\n

Right now, the big picture story of Sunak\u2019s first six months has been this: he has restored relative stability after the collapse of the Johnsonian<\/a> and Trussite<\/a> regimes, making the Conservatives less unpopular than they were when he took over. But beyond the high political battles between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer at Westminster, it remains likely that the next election will take place against a backdrop of strained public services and a variety of sleaze scandals empowered by a legacy of lax standards.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Perhaps this recent period has been \u201cpeak Sunak\u201d \u2014 a high-water mark of delivery and action on matters squandered by his predecessors \u2014 before events, elections and continued economic gloom hollow out his revival narrative.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Six months ago, Rishi Sunak entered No 10 Downing Street as prime minister for the first time. Preceded by six weeks of exile following his bruising campaign defeat in the summer to Liz Truss, it is difficult to overstate how significant a political comeback this was. But as pensions funds teetered and Britain\u2019s financier class… Read more »<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":183,"featured_media":131048,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7562],"tags":[66,41],"editors-picks":[],"maps":[],"class_list":["post-131355","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-5-minute-read","tag-voting","tag-rishi-sunak"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAfter six months and a revival narrative established, have we reached \u2018peak Sunak\u2019? - Politics.co.uk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.politics.co.uk\/5-minute-read\/2023\/04\/25\/after-six-months-and-a-revival-narrative-established-have-we-reached-peak-sunak\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"After six months and a revival narrative established, have we reached \u2018peak Sunak\u2019? - Politics.co.uk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Six months ago, Rishi Sunak entered No 10 Downing Street as prime minister for the first time. 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